A Unified Benchmark of Machine Learning and Deep Neural Networks for Tennis Match Prediction

Khem Poudel, Lilly-Sophie Schmidt, Clifford N. Jones, Saroj Baral, Thuan Nhan, Satish Wagle, Jorge Vargas

Tennis match prediction has been studied extensively, yet the literature offers no controlled comparison of Elo ratings, classical machine learning, and deep neural networks under identical experimental conditions, leaving practitioners without clear guidance on model selection. We address this gap with a unified empirical study on 133,138 professional men’s tennis matches from the Association of Tennis Professionals tour (1968–2024). Four approaches are evaluated on the same temporally split data with a common 16-feature set and an aligned evaluation protocol: an enhanced Elo rating system, ten classical machine learning algorithms, seventeen deep neural network configurations spanning 207,000 to 21,000,000 parameters, and a hybrid Elo–machine learning (ELO-ML) approach that augments classical learners with three Elo-derived features. A tuned Elo baseline alone reaches 65.87% accuracy, the best of ten classical machine learning algorithms reaches 66.30%, seventeen deep neural network configurations cluster at 66.15–66.22%, and the hybrid ELO-ML approach reaches 67.52% (McNemar’s test, p<0.001 for all ELO-ML pairwise comparisons). All four approaches sit within a 1.65 pp band whose upper edge lies below the 70–72% accuracy commonly cited for bookmaker odds, indicating that pre-match prediction under universally available features is a difficult task in which Elo alone already captures most of the predictable signal and algorithmic sophistication adds only marginal headroom. Deep neural networks deliver substantially better probability calibration than the other approaches (Expected Calibration Error 0.0077 vs. 0.0142). Model capacity exhibits sharply diminishing returns: all seventeen network configurations, spanning a 100-fold range in parameter count (207,000 to 21,000,000), fall within a 0.07 pp accuracy band. The study establishes a controlled benchmark for tour-level tennis prediction, quantifies how narrow the headroom above Elo actually is, provides modest but consistent empirical support for the statistically enhanced learning framework, and supplies deployment-ready operating points for sports analytics practitioners.