Development and Validation of Transformer- and Convolutional Neural Network-Based Deep Learning Models to Predict Curve Progression in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis

Shinji Takahashi, Shota Ichikawa, Kei Watanabe, Haruki Ueda, Hideyuki Arima, Yu Yamato, Takumi Takeuchi, Naobumi Hosogane, Masashi Okamoto, Manami Umezu, Hiroki Oba, Yohan Kondo, Shoji Seki

Background/Objectives: The clinical management of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) is hindered by the inability to accurately predict curve progression. Although skeletal maturity and the initial Cobb angle are established predictors of progression, their combined predictive accuracy remains limited. This study aimed to develop a robust and interpretable artificial intelligence (AI) system using deep learning (DL) models to predict the progression of scoliosis using only standing frontal radiographs. Methods: We conducted a multicenter study involving 542 patients with AIS. After excluding 52 borderline progression cases (6–9° progression in the Cobb angle), 294 and 196 patients were assigned to progression (≥10° increase) and non-progression (≤5° increase) groups, respectively, considering a 2-year follow-up. Frontal whole spinal radiographs were preprocessed using histogram equalization and divided into two regions of interest (ROIs) (ROI 1, skull base–femoral head; ROI 2, C7–iliac crest). Six pretrained DL models, including convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and transformer-based models, were trained on the radiograph images. Gradient-weighted class activation mapping (Grad-CAM) was further performed for model interpretation. Results: Ensemble models outperformed individual ones, with the average ensemble model achieving area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.769 for ROI 1 and 0.755 for ROI 2. Grad-CAM revealed that the CNNs tended to focus on the local curve apex, whereas the transformer-based models demonstrated global attention across the spine, ribs, and pelvis. Models trained on ROI 2 performed comparably with respect to those using ROI 1, supporting the feasibility of image standardization without a loss of accuracy. Conclusions: This study establishes the clinical potential of transformer-based DL models for predicting the progression of scoliosis using only plain radiographs. Our multicenter approach, high AUC values, and interpretable architectures support the integration of AI into clinical decision-making for the early treatment of AIS.