Digital Empowerment, Novel Productive Forces, and Regional Green Innovation Efficiency: Causal Inference Based on Spatial Difference-in-Differences and Double Machine Learning Approaches

Qi Liu, Siyu Liu, Tianning Guan, Luhan Yu, Zemenghong Bao, Yuzhu Wen, Kun Lv

Amidst the dual challenges of escalating ecological environmental pressures and economic transformation globally, green innovation emerges as a pivotal pathway toward achieving high-quality sustainable development. To elucidate how digitalization and novel productive forces synergistically drive the green transition, the research utilizes panel data from 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China spanning 2009 to 2022, constructing a green innovation efficiency measurement frame-work grounded in the Super Slack-Based Measure (Super-SBM)model, alongside a novel productive forces evaluation system based on the triad of laborers, labor objects, and means of production. Employing spatial difference-in-differences and double machine learning methodologies within a quasi-natural experimental design, the research investigates the causal mechanisms through which digital empowerment and novel productive forces influence regional green innovation efficiency. The findings reveal that both digital empowerment and novel productive forces significantly enhance regional green innovation efficiency, exhibiting pronounced positive spatial spillover effects on neighboring regions. Heterogeneity analyses demonstrate that the promotive impacts are more pronounced in eastern provinces compared to central and western counterparts, in provinces participating in carbon trading relative to those that do not, and in innovation-driven provinces versus non-innovative ones. Mediation analysis indicates that digital empowerment operates by fostering the aggregation of innovative talent and elevating governmental ecological attentiveness, whereas new-type productivity exerts its influence primarily through intellectual property protection and the clustering of high-technology industries. The results offer empirical foundations for policymakers to devise coordinated regional green development strategies, refine digital transformation policies, and promote industrial structural optimization. Furthermore, this research provides valuable data-driven insights and theoretical guidance for local governments and enterprises in cultivating green innovation and new-type productivity.