Wildfire Susceptibility Mapping Using Deep Learning and Machine Learning Models Based on Multi-Sensor Satellite Data Fusion: A Case Study of Serbia

Uroš Durlević, Velibor Ilić, Aleksandar Valjarević

To prevent or mitigate the negative impact of fires, spatial prediction maps of wildfires are created to identify susceptible locations and key factors that influence the occurrence of fires. This study uses artificial intelligence models, specifically machine learning (XGBoost) and deep learning (Kolmogorov-Arnold networks—KANs, and deep neural network—DNN), with data obtained from multi-sensor satellite imagery (MODIS, VIIRS, Sentinel-2, Landsat 8/9) for spatial modeling wildfires in Serbia (88,361 km2). Based on geographic information systems (GIS) and 199,598 wildfire samples, 16 quantitative variables (geomorphological, climatological, hydrological, vegetational, and anthropogenic) are presented, together with 3 synthesis maps and an integrated susceptibility map of the 3 applied models. The results show a varying percentage of Serbia’s very high vulnerability to wildfires (XGBoost = 11.5%; KAN = 14.8%; DNN = 15.2%; Ensemble = 12.7%). Among the applied models, the DNN achieved the highest predictive performance (Accuracy = 83.4%, ROC-AUC = 92.3%), followed by XGBoost and KANs, both of which also demonstrated strong predictive accuracy (ROC-AUC > 90%). These results confirm the robustness of deep and machine learning approaches for wildfire susceptibility mapping in Serbia. SHAP analysis determined that the most influential factors are elevation, air temperature, and humidity regime (precipitation, aridity, and series of consecutive dry/wet days).