The growing use of Bitcoin as a decentralized digital asset and investment tool has sparked strong interest in understanding its market behavior. This study presents a new approach to analyze Bitcoin market sentiment by combining on-chain and financial data with social media posts. Unlike models that aim to predict prices, this work focuses on explaining market sentiment using blockchain transactions, historical price data of Bitcoin, and daily Twitter sentiment classifications. The method merges sentiment trends with on-chain and financial metrics, normalized into a dataset for detailed market analysis. Multiple machine learning models were tested using cross-validation, with Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) emerging as the most reliable model for classifying sentiment, achieving an average F1-score of about 0.84. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), a game theory-based method for model interpretability, was used to quantify the contribution of on-chain features to the model's predictions, improving transparency. The results indicate that this data combination yields meaningful predictive signals and insights, supporting data-driven cryptocurrency analysis and future improvements with deep learning.
Extracting interpretable, localized physical mechanisms from complex spatiotemporal data is a foundational challenge across physics, biology, and engineering, but has remained out of reach on real measurements. The central obstacle is obtaining high-quality gradients of data via…
Technology computer-aided design (TCAD) semiconductor device simulation is fundamentally constrained by the high computational cost of iteratively solving coupled drift-diffusion equations. Existing ML surrogates either reduce internal physics to macroscopic scalar regressions, o…
Production LLM-based financial sentiment analysis faces a structural cost trap: most queries are trivially classifiable, yet expensive cloud reasoners process them all, and the bill scales linearly with user count. We present TriAgent, a multi-agent committee stratified by contex…
Access to potable water is crucial for health, economic development, and sustainability. However, accurately classifying water quality remains a significant challenge due to the complexity and variability of water source data. This paper addresses the challenge of predicting wate…
Kilometer-scale convection shapes precipitation extremes, tropical organization, and cloud feedbacks, but most global atmospheric models approximate these processes at 25-100 km resolution. Global storm-resolving physics models resolve convective systems explicitly, but at a cost…
While generative models have enabled training-free reward alignment, current methods typically excel in local exploration within narrow regions of the underlying distribution. These approaches struggle when preferences are unknown a priori and only revealed through sequential fee…