Studying the Aerosol Effect on Deep Convective Clouds over the Global Oceans by Applying Machine Learning Techniques on Long-Term Satellite Observation

Xuepeng Zhao, James Frech, Michael Foster, Andrew Heidinger

Long-term (1982–2019) satellite climate data records (CDRs) of aerosols and clouds, reanalysis data of meteorological fields, and machine learning techniques are used to study the aerosol effect on deep convective clouds (DCCs) over the global oceans from a climatological perspective. Our analyses are focused on three latitude belts where DCCs appear more frequently in the climatology: the northern middle latitude (NML), tropical latitude (TRL), and southern middle latitude (SML). It was found that the aerosol effect on marine DCCs may be detected only in NML from long-term averaged satellite aerosol and cloud observations. Specifically, cloud particle size is more susceptible to the aerosol effect compared to other cloud micro-physical variables (e.g., cloud optical depth). The signature of the aerosol effect on DCCs can be easily obscured by meteorological covariances for cloud macro-physical variables, such as cloud cover and cloud top temperature (CTT). From a machine learning analysis, we found that the primary aerosol effect (i.e., the aerosol effect without meteorological feedbacks and covariances) can partially explain the aerosol convective invigoration in CTT and that meteorological feedbacks and covariances need to be included to accurately capture the aerosol convective invigoration. From our singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis, we found the aerosol effects in the three leading principal components (PCs) may explain about one third of the variance of satellite-observed cloud variables and significant positive or negative trends are only observed in the lead PC1 of cloud and aerosol variables. The lead PC1 component is an effective mode for detecting the aerosol effect on DCCs. Our results are valuable for the evaluation and improvement of aerosol-cloud interactions in the long-term climate simulations of global climate models.