Advanced Ensemble Machine-Learning Models for Predicting Splitting Tensile Strength in Silica Fume-Modified Concrete

Nadia Moneem Al-Abdaly, Mohammed E. Seno, Mustafa A. Thwaini, Hamza Imran, Krzysztof Adam Ostrowski, Kazimierz Furtak

The splitting tensile strength of concrete is crucial for structural integrity, as tensile stresses from load and environmental changes often lead to cracking. This study investigates the effectiveness of advanced ensemble machine-learning models, including LightGBM, GBRT, XGBoost, and AdaBoost, in accurately predicting the splitting tensile strength of silica fume-enhanced concrete. Using a robust database split into training (80%) and testing (20%) sets, we assessed model performance through R2, RMSE, and MAE metrics. Results demonstrate that GBRT and XGBoost achieved superior predictive accuracy, with R2 scores reaching 0.999 in training and high precision in testing (XGBoost: R2 = 0.965, RMSE = 0.337; GBRT: R2 = 0.955, RMSE = 0.381), surpassing both LightGBM and AdaBoost. This study highlights GBRT and XGBoost as reliable, efficient alternatives to traditional testing methods, offering substantial time and cost savings. Additionally, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis was conducted to identify key input features and to elucidate their influence on splitting tensile strength, providing valuable insights into the predictive behavior of silica fume-enhanced concrete. The SHAP analysis reveals that the water-to-binder ratio and curing duration are the most critical factors influencing the splitting tensile strength of silica fume concrete.