An Intelligent Early Flood Forecasting and Prediction Leveraging Machine and Deep Learning Algorithms with Advanced Alert System

Israa M. Hayder, Taief Alaa Al-Amiedy, Wad Ghaban, Faisal Saeed, Maged Nasser, Ghazwan Abdulnabi Al-Ali, Hussain A. Younis

Flood disasters are a natural occurrence around the world, resulting in numerous casualties. It is vital to develop an accurate flood forecasting and prediction model in order to curb damages and limit the number of victims. Water resource allocation, management, planning, flood warning and forecasting, and flood damage mitigation all benefit from rain forecasting. Prior to recent decades’ worth of research, this domain demonstrated to be promising prospects in time series prediction tasks. Therefore, the main aim of this study is to build a forecasting model based on the exponential smoothing-long-short term memory (ES-LSTM) structure and recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for predicting hourly precipitation seasons; and classify the precipitation using an artificial neural network (ANN) model and decision tree (DT) algorithm. We employ the dataset from the Australian commonwealth office of meteorology named Historical Daily Weather dataset to test the effectiveness of the proposed model. The findings showed that the ES-LSTM and RNN had achieved 3.17 and 6.42 in terms of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), respectively. Meanwhile, the ANN and DT models obtained a prediction accuracy rate of 96.65% and 84.0%, respectively. Finally, the outcomes revealed that ES-LSTM and ANN had achieved the best results compared to other models.