Non-Invasive Multiclass Diabetes Classification Using Breath Biomarkers and Machine Learning with Explainable AI

Alberto Gudiño-Ochoa, Julio Alberto García-Rodríguez, Raquel Ochoa-Ornelas, Eduardo Ruiz-Velazquez, Sofia Uribe-Toscano, Jorge Ivan Cuevas-Chávez, Daniel Alejandro Sánchez-Arias

Background/Objectives: The increasing prevalence of diabetes underscores the urgent need for non-invasive, rapid, and cost-effective diagnostic alternatives. This study presents a breath-based multiclass diabetes classification system leveraging only three gas sensors (CO, alcohol, and acetone) to analyze exhaled breath composition. Methods: Breath samples were collected from 58 participants (22 healthy, 7 prediabetic, and 29 diabetic), with blood glucose levels serving as the reference metric. To enhance classification performance, we introduced a novel biomarker, the alcohol-to-acetone ratio, through a feature engineering approach. Class imbalance was addressed using the Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique (SMOTE), ensuring a balanced dataset for model training. A nested cross-validation framework with 3 outer and 3 inner folds was implemented. Multiple machine learning classifiers were evaluated, with Random Forest and Gradient Boosting emerging as the top-performing models. Results: An ensemble combining both yielded the highest overall performance, achieving an average accuracy of 98.86%, precision of 99.07%, recall of 98.81% and F1 score of 98.87%. These findings highlight the potential of gas sensor-based breath analysis as a highly accurate, scalable, and non-invasive method for diabetes screening. Conclusions: The proposed system offers a promising alternative to blood-based diagnostic approaches, paving the way for real-world applications in point-of-care diagnostics and continuous health monitoring.