High-Precision Spatial Interpolation of Meteorological Variables in Complex Terrain Using Machine Learning Methods

Shuangping Li, Bin Zhang, Bo Shi, Qingsong Ai, Yuxi Zeng, Xuanyao Yan, Hao Chen, Huawei Wang

This study has explored the effectiveness of machine learning methods for high-precision spatial interpolation of meteorological variables, aiming to provide accurate atmospheric delay corrections for high-precision edge and corner nets observation in complex-terrain environments such as the Xiluodu Hydropower Station, thereby enhancing the accuracy of deformation monitoring. Considering the significant limitations of traditional interpolation methods such as Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) and Ordinary Kriging (OK) in capturing spatial variability under complex topographic conditions, we systematically introduced machine learning algorithms including Random Forest (RF)and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost, XGB) to compare their performance with traditional methods for high-density interpolation of sparsely distributed temperature, relative humidity, and surface pressure, respectively. Concurrently, we proposed an enhanced XGB model incorporating center-point features (XGB-C) which frames spatial interpolation as a supervised learning problem that learns physical mapping from synoptic backgrounds to local microclimates instead of relying on geometric distances alone. The interpolation performance indices (RMSE, MAE, and R2) were evaluated with daily meteorological observations from 47 stations (38 for training, 9 for testing) during 2023–2024. Results demonstrate that machine learning methods significantly outperform traditional approaches, with XGB-C achieving the highest accuracy (R2 ≈ 1.00 for pressure, 0.97 for humidity, 0.83 for temperature). Moreover, the interpolation performance also exhibits a dependence on seasons and the station location. Greater challenges are shown in the summer season and in the “Urban and Built-Up” and “Croplands” areas. These findings highlight the substantial advantages of machine learning, particularly the proposed XGB-C, for meteorological interpolation in mountainous hydropower station environments where accurate atmospheric correction is crucial for deformation monitoring. This also lays a solid foundation for developing operational ML-based interpolation models trained with high-quality labels derived from unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) remote sensing data.