Prediction of Potential Evapotranspiration via Machine Learning and Deep Learning for Sustainable Water Management in the Murat River Basin

Ibrahim A. Hasan, Mehmet Ishak Yuce

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a significant factor contributing to water loss in hydrological systems, making it a critical area of research. However, accurately calculating and measuring PET remains challenging due to the limited availability of comprehensive data. This study presents a detailed sustainable model for predicting PET using the Thornthwaite equation, which requires only mean monthly temperature (Tmean) and latitude, with calculations performed using R-Studio. A geographic information system (GIS) was employed to interpolate meteorological data, ensuring coverage of all sub-basins within the Murat River basin, the study area. Additionally, Python libraries were utilized to implement artificial intelligence-driven models, incorporating both machine learning and deep learning techniques. The study harnesses the power of artificial intelligence (AI), applying deep learning through a convolutional neural network (CNN) and machine learning techniques, including support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF). The results demonstrate promising performance across the models. For CNN, the coefficient of determination (R2) varied from 96.2 to 98.7%, the mean squared error (MSE) ranged from 0.287 to 0.408, and the root mean squared error (RMSE) was between 0.541 and 0.649. For SVM, the R2 varied from 94.5 to 95.6%, MSE ranged between 0.981 and 1.013, and RMSE ranged from 0.990 to 1.014. RF showed the best performance, achieving an R2 of 100%, MSE values of 0.326 and 0.640, and corresponding RMSE values of 0.571 and 0.800. The climate and topography data used for all algorithms were consistent, and the results indicate that the RF model outperforms the others. Consequently, The RF model’s superior accuracy highlights its potential as a reliable tool for sustainable PET prediction, supporting informed decision-making in water resource planning. By leveraging GIS, AI, and machine learning, this study enhances PET modeling methodologies, addressing critical water management challenges and promoting sustainable hydrological practices in the face of climate change and resource limitations.