The Subseasonal Applications for Agriculture and Environment (SAGE) project within the World Weather Research Programme: Making subseasonal predictions more useful for sectoral applications

Marisol Osman, Víctor Marchezini, Steven J. Woolnough, Nico Caltabiano, Rachel Lowe, Emma Doyle, Dewald van Niekerk, Juan Bazo, Roger Stone, Arun Kumar, Yuhei Takaya, P. Mukhopadhyay, Ziqiang Han, Masilin Gudoshava, Cristiana Stan, Shipra Jain, A. K. Sahai, Kunio Yoneyama, Estelle De Coning

Subseasonal forecasts are routinely produced by different prediction centers around the globe, offering actionable lead time for decisions across climate-sensitive sectors. However, the uptake of these forecasts is still limited. We argue that this gap persists not because of a single barrier but because of a set of obstacles: insufficient understanding of how and where subseasonal information enters real decision processes; limited knowledge of when forecasts can be trusted; weak methods for communicating and incorporating uncertainty into operational workflows; and few demonstrated success stories linking forecast use to improved outcomes. In this Perspective, we synthesize the evidence accumulated during the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction (S2S) Project and identify the critical gaps that limit the transition from prediction science to climate services, and present the research-and-implementation agenda of SAGE (Subseasonal Applications for Agriculture and Environment), a five-year project under the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). SAGE prioritizes user needs to advance in the understanding on how and where information at subseasonal timescales is and can be used. We outline key scientific questions for the broader community, describe the phased research plan and its expected outcomes. SAGE encourages the entire community of scientists and practitioners to contribute to this agenda.