Multi-Hypothesis Test-Time Adaptation to Mitigate Underspecification

Afshar Shamsi, Xiao-Yu Guo, Hamid Alinejad-Rokny, Arash Mohammadi, Damien Teney, Ehsan Abbasnejad

Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) seeks to improve model robustness under distribution shifts by adapting parameters using unlabeled target data. However, in the absence of supervision, entropy-based adaptation is fundamentally underconstrained: multiple distinct parameter updates can achieve similarly low entropy while inducing drastically different decision boundaries. This phenomenon, known as underspecification, renders standard TTA brittle and prone to collapse into spurious modes. In this work, we reinterpret TTA through a posterior-inspired lens induced by entropy minimization, where low-entropy solutions define a pseudo-likelihood over parameters. Instead of committing to a single point estimate, we introduce a particle-based diversification framework that explores multiple plausible adaptation trajectories simultaneously. Our method can be viewed as a structured exploration of multiple plausible adaptation solutions, implemented through multi-level diversification at the output, parameter, optimizer, and input levels. Crucially, the framework acts as a plug-and-play wrapper compatible with existing TTA methods. Extensive experiments on challenging benchmarks demonstrate consistent gains in stability and robustness, achieving improvements of 3-4% under mixed shifts, 2-3% with batch size one, and 1-2.5% under label shifts, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines. Our results suggest that treating TTA as a multi-hypothesis inference problem, rather than a single-point optimization task, is key to mitigating underspecification and enabling reliable real-world deployment.