When Does Small Data Work? Accuracy and Efficiency Trade-offs Between Tabular Foundation Models and Conventional Methods for Crowd-State Classification at Hajj and Umrah

AlJawharh S. AlOtaibi, Mohamed Eltahir, Jude AlSubaie

Learning from few labeled examples is a central challenge in tabular machine learning, and it becomes the binding constraint in domains where labeling is costly, such as crowd monitoring during Hajj and Umrah. Tabular foundation models, which predict from only a handful of examples without task-specific training, were recently introduced to address this very-few-label regime. In this study we test them on crowd-state classification to assess how much they help when labels are scarce, and we compare them against standard machine learning methods to characterize the accuracy and efficiency trade-offs between the two approaches. Using three real datasets we evaluate different machine learning models, in untuned and tuned forms, against three foundation models. Results show that no single family is best everywhere. The right choice depends on the label budget. When labels are very few, foundation models lead. As labels grow, tuned conventional models catch up and significantly surpass the foundation models on the more structural geometry target. Efficiency separates them further where tuned machine learning models incur a large tuning cost that foundation models avoid, although foundation models reprocess their context at every prediction. We summarize these results as a practical map of which approach to prefer under a given label budget and computational budget.