Advancing Scalable Methods for Surface Water Monitoring: A Novel Integration of Satellite Observations and Machine Learning Techniques

Megan Renshaw, Lori A. Magruder

Accurate surface water volume (SWV) estimates are crucial for effective water resource management and for the regional monitoring of hydrological trends. This study introduces a multi-resolution surface water volume estimation framework that integrates ICESat-2 altimetry, Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), and Sentinel-2 multispectral imagery via machine learning to improve the vertical resolution of a digital elevation model (DEM) to improve the accuracy of SWV estimates. The machine learning approach provides a significant improvement in terrain accuracy relative to the DEM, reducing RMSE by ~66% and 78% across the two models, respectively, over the initial data product fidelity. Assessing the resulting SWV estimates relative to GRACE-FO terrestrial water storage in parts of the Amazon Basin, we found strong correlations and basin-wide drying trends. Notably, the high correlation (r > 0.8) between our surface water estimates and the GRACE-FO signal in the Manaus region highlights our method’s ability to resolve key hydrological dynamics. Our results underscore the value of improved vertical DEM availability for global hydrological studies and offer a scalable framework for future applications. Future work will focus on expanding our DEM dataset, further validation, and scaling this methodology for global applications.