Machine Learning-Based Analysis of Travel Mode Preferences: Neural and Boosting Model Comparison Using Stated Preference Data from Thailand’s Emerging High-Speed Rail Network

Chinnakrit Banyong, Natthaporn Hantanong, Supanida Nanthawong, Chamroeun Se, Panuwat Wisutwattanasak, Thanapong Champahom, Vatanavongs Ratanavaraha, Sajjakaj Jomnonkwao

This study examines travel mode choice behavior within the context of Thailand’s emerging high-speed rail (HSR) development. It conducts a comparative assessment of predictive capabilities between the conventional Multinomial Logit (MNL) framework and advanced data-driven methodologies, including gradient boosting algorithms (Extreme Gradient Boosting, Light Gradient Boosting Machine, Categorical Boosting) and neural network architectures (Deep Neural Network, Convolutional Neural Network). The analysis leverages stated preference (SP) data and employs Bayesian optimization in conjunction with a stratified 10-fold cross-validation scheme to ensure model robustness. CatBoost emerges as the top-performing model (area under the curve = 0.9113; accuracy = 0.7557), highlighting travel cost, service frequency, and waiting time as the most influential determinants. These findings underscore the effectiveness of machine learning approaches in capturing complex behavioral patterns, providing empirical evidence to guide high-speed rail policy development in low- and middle-income countries. Practical implications include optimizing fare structures, enhancing service quality, and improving station accessibility to support sustainable adoption.