arxivphysics.ao-phcs.LG2026-06-29
Conditional Tropical Cyclogenesis Rates via Rare-Event Sampling in a Neural Weather Emulator
John S. Schreck, William Chapman, Charlie Becker, David John Gagne
We couple Forward Flux Sampling (FFS), a non-equilibrium rare-event technique from statistical mechanics, to a neural weather emulator (SDL-WXFormer, 1° grid spacing) to estimate conditional tropical cyclogenesis rates, or how often a tropical cyclone achieves a hurricane-level c…