arxivcs.LGstat.AP2026-07-03
Joint distribution of upstream runoff governs downstream river-discharge prediction uncertainty in distributed ML models
Karan Ruparell, Tristan Hascoet, Takemasa Miyoshi, Kieran M. R. Hunt, Hannah L. Cloke, Christel Prudhomme, et al.
Uncertainty quantification of hydrological predictions is necessary to inform operational decisions. Recent generative machine-learning methods have advanced probabilistic streamflow prediction, but have remained confined to lumped models that predict a basin outlet directly. At…