arxivcs.AI2026-07-15
CausalGraphX: A Counterfactual Graph Neural Network Framework for Explainable Systemic Risk Assessment
Rabimba Karanjai, Hemanth Madhavarao, Lei Xu, Weidong Shi
The interconnected nature of global financial systems makes them vulnerable to systemic risks, where the failure of a few institutions can trigger catastrophic cascading defaults. Traditional risk models often fail to capture the complex, non-linear dynamics of these networks. Wh…