arxivcs.LGcs.AIcs.CL2026-06-30
Reliability Scales Inversely: Bigger Models Compound Mistakes Faster via a Hidden Auto-Regressive Risk Regime
As language models scale, answers start truer but degrade faster: scaling buys capability but erodes reliability. The knowledge-gap account - more data, retrieval, or scale - misses an auto-regressive risk residual that scale sharpens: the model commits to a low-probability token…