arxivstat.MLcs.DScs.LG2026-07-22
Optimal Recalibration of an Online Predictor
Lunjia Hu, Kevin Tian, Chutong Yang
We study the problem of recalibrating an online predictor [KE17, OKS24]: given an arbitrary "hint" sequence of forecasts, the learner must output new predictions that are calibrated while incurring small excess error relative to the original forecasts, under a proper loss. We giv…