Matteo Montrucchio

Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for NBA Forecasting in Digital Betting Markets

Matteo Montrucchio, Enrico Barbierato, Alice Gatti

This study introduces a fully uncertainty-aware forecasting framework for NBA games that integrates team-level performance metrics, rolling-form indicators, and spatial shot-chart embeddings. The predictive backbone is a recurrent neural network equipped with Monte Carlo dropout,…Read more