arxivcs.LG2026-07-09
PIT-SUN: A Deployable Empirical Marginal Transform Framework with Expectation-Consistent Recovery for Regression in Recommender Systems
Mingyu Zhao, Zhaohan Li, Zhenxiong Miao, Xu Zhang, Dewei Leng, Yanan Niu, et al.
Estimating original-space conditional expectations is central to value-driven recommender systems, including dwell time, GMV, and LTV forecasting. Standard MSE is expectation-consistent in principle, but its gradients become unstable on heavy-tailed, zero-inflated, and multimodal…