arxiveess.SY2026-06-30
Uncertainty Quantification via Invariant-Measure Conformal Prediction
Mohammadhossein Bakhtiaridoust, Dominik Baumann, Shankar Deka
Uncertainty quantification for learned stochastic dynamical systems is essential in safety-critical tasks such as control and monitoring. Standard conformal prediction provides finite-sample coverage guarantees under exchangeability, but this assumption is typically violated in d…