arxivcs.LGcs.AI2026-07-14
The Computational Basis of Confidence in Large Language Models
Dharshan Kumaran, Viorica Patraucean, Maks Ovsanikov, Petar Veličković, Nathaniel Daw
Reliable confidence -- the probability that a model's own answer is correct -- is essential for the trustworthy deployment of language models. Existing work has largely evaluated confidence by how well it predicts correctness and whether it is calibrated, leaving open a more fund…