arxivcs.LGstat.ML2026-07-20
Calibrated Alzheimer's Conversion Risk in Mild Cognitive Impairment: Persistent Homology of Clinical Trajectories with Conformal Guarantees
Background. Predicting conversion from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) is central to trial enrichment and care planning, yet existing models provide no individual-level uncertainty estimates and rarely include transparent leakage audits. We introduce t…