arxivcs.AI2026-06-29
BayesBench: Evaluating LLM Belief Trajectories Under Multi-Turn Evidence Accumulation
Ankur Samanta, Akshayaa Magesh, Tal Lancewicki, Ayush Jain, Youliang Yu, Paul Sajda, et al.
Large language models (LLMs) are typically deployed in multi-turn conversations, where each turn provides new evidence that should reduce epistemic uncertainty about their environment. Acting rationally then requires inferring the unobserved quantities that govern it and updating…