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Salavat Ishbulatov

3 papers indexed

arxivcs.LGcs.GT2026-07-22

Attribution Markets: A Fisher-Market Formulation for Fractional Credit Assignment Between Planned Tasks and Performed Actions

Salavat Ishbulatov

Personal and organizational planning systems maintain two records that drift apart: what was planned (a task's effort budget) and what was done (a logged action's duration and description). Existing systems bridge them with an exclusive, all-or-nothing link that strands genuinely…

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arxivcs.LGcs.CE2026-07-06

Reliability and Identifiability in Persona-Trained Monte Carlo: Variance Decomposition, Stability Bounds, and the Identifiability of Heterogeneous News Reaction

Salavat Ishbulatov

Persona-Trained Monte Carlo (PTMC) estimates distributions of market-outcome functionals by repeatedly simulating limit-order-book interaction among $K$ neural policy bots whose behavioral personas are drawn from a learned heterogeneity distribution $\mathcal{P}$. This paper deve…

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arxivcs.LGcs.MA2026-06-28

Persona-Trained Monte Carlo: Estimating Market-Outcome Distributions via Swarms of Persona-Conditioned Neural Policy Bots in a Limit Order Book

Salavat Ishbulatov

We propose Persona-Trained Monte Carlo (PTMC), a method for estimating distributions of market-outcome statistics by repeatedly simulating limit-order-book interaction among swarms of persona-conditioned neural-policy trading bots. Each run instantiates many bots sharing one trai…

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