arxivcs.LGcs.AIstat.ML2026-06-25
Decision-Aligned Evaluation of Uncertainty Quantification
Annika Schneider, Tommy Rochussen, Joshua Stiller, Vincent Fortuin
Uncertainty estimates in machine learning are typically evaluated using generic metrics such as the negative log-likelihood and expected calibration error, yet good performance on such metrics does not necessarily imply high utility in downstream decisions. We introduce decision-…