arxivstat.MLcs.LG2026-07-22
SPECTRA: State-Space Exogenous Context and Temporal-Frequency Resolution Architecture for Probabilistic Energy Forecasting
Hang Ye, Xinyan Jiang, Yuedong Shi, Yangxin Zhu, Jianming Wei, Tian Zheng, et al.
Modern power systems increasingly require probabilistic forecasts amid interacting uncertainties from renewable intermittency, flexible demand, market volatility, and weather-dependent generation. However, existing methods often treat multi-scale decomposition, exogenous-variable…