Micro-Climate Computed Machine and Deep Learning Models for Prediction of Surface Water Temperature Using Satellite Data in Mundan Water Reservoir

Sabastian Simbarashe Mukonza, Jie-Lun Chiang

Water temperature is an important indicator of water quality for surface water resources because it impacts solubility of dissolved gases in water, affects metabolic rates of aquatic inhabitants, such as fish and harmful algal blooms (HABs), and determines the fate of water resident biogeochemical nutrients. Furthermore, global warming is causing a widespread rise in temperature levels in water sources on a global scale, threatening clean drinking water supplies. Therefore, it is key to increase the frequency of spatio-monitoring for surface water temperature (SWT). However, there is a lack of comprehensive SWT monitoring datasets because current methods for monitoring SWT are costly, time consuming, and not standardized. The research objective of this study was to estimate SWT using data from the Landsat-8 (L8) and Sentinel-3 (S3) satellites. To do this, we used machine learning techniques, such as Support Vector Regression (SVR), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), simple neural network (ANN), and deep learning techniques (Long Short Term Memory, LSTM, and Convolutional Long Short Term Memory, 1D ConvLSTM). Using deep and machine learning techniques to regress satellite data to estimate SWT presents a number of challenges, including prediction uncertainty, over- or under-estimation of measured values, and significant variation in the final estimated data. The performance of the L8 ConvLSTM model was superior to all other methods (R2 of 0.93 RMSE of 0.16 °C, and bias of 0.01 °C). The factors that had a significant effect on the model’s accuracy performance were identified and quantified using a two-factor analysis of variance (ANOVA) analysis. The results demonstrate that the main effects and interaction of the type of machine/deep learning (ML/DL) model and the type of satellite have statistically significant effects on the performances of the different models. The test statistics are as follows: (satellite type main effect p *** ≤ 0.05, Ftest = 15.4478), (type of ML/DL main effect p *** ≤ 0.05, Ftest = 17.4607) and (interaction, satellite type × type of ML/DL p ** ≤ 0.05, Ftest = 3.5325), respectively. The models were successfully deployed to enable satellite remote sensing monitoring of SWT for the reservoir, which will help to resolve the limitations of the conventional sampling and laboratory techniques.