A Machine Learning Approach to Monitor the Physiological and Water Status of an Irrigated Peach Orchard under Semi-Arid Conditions by Using Multispectral Satellite Data

Pasquale Campi, Anna Francesca Modugno, Gabriele De Carolis, Francisco Pedrero Salcedo, Beatriz Lorente, Simone Pietro Garofalo

Climate change is making water management increasingly difficult due to rising temperatures and unpredictable rainfall patterns, impacting crop water availability and irrigation needs. This study investigated the ability of machine learning and satellite remote sensing to monitor water status and physiology. The research focused on predicting different eco-physiological parameters in an irrigated peach orchard under Mediterranean conditions, utilizing multispectral reflectance data and machine learning algorithms (extreme gradient boosting, random forest, support vector regressor); ground data were acquired from 2021 to 2023 in the south of Italy. The random forest model outperformed in predicting net assimilation (R2 = 0.61), while the support vector machine performed best in predicting electron transport rate (R2 = 0.57), Fv/Fm ratio (R2 = 0.66) and stomatal conductance (R2 = 0.56). Random forest also proved to be the most effective in predicting stem water potential (R2 = 0.62). These findings highlighted the potential of integrating machine learning techniques with high-resolution satellite imagery to assist farmers in monitoring crop health and optimizing irrigation practices, thereby addressing the challenges determined by climate change.