Deep Neural Networks and Machine Learning Radiomics Modelling for Prediction of Relapse in Mantle Cell Lymphoma

Catharina Silvia Lisson, Christoph Gerhard Lisson, Marc Fabian Mezger, Daniel Wolf, Stefan Andreas Schmidt, Wolfgang M. Thaiss, Eugen Tausch, Ambros J. Beer, Stephan Stilgenbauer, Meinrad Beer, Michael Goetz

Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) is a rare lymphoid malignancy with a poor prognosis characterised by frequent relapse and short durations of treatment response. Most patients present with aggressive disease, but there exist indolent subtypes without the need for immediate intervention. The very heterogeneous behaviour of MCL is genetically characterised by the translocation t(11;14)(q13;q32), leading to Cyclin D1 overexpression with distinct clinical and biological characteristics and outcomes. There is still an unfulfilled need for precise MCL prognostication in real-time. Machine learning and deep learning neural networks are rapidly advancing technologies with promising results in numerous fields of application. This study develops and compares the performance of deep learning (DL) algorithms and radiomics-based machine learning (ML) models to predict MCL relapse on baseline CT scans. Five classification algorithms were used, including three deep learning models (3D SEResNet50, 3D DenseNet, and an optimised 3D CNN) and two machine learning models based on K-nearest Neighbor (KNN) and Random Forest (RF). The best performing method, our optimised 3D CNN, predicted MCL relapse with a 70% accuracy, better than the 3D SEResNet50 (62%) and the 3D DenseNet (59%). The second-best performing method was the KNN-based machine learning model (64%) after principal component analysis for improved accuracy. Our optimised CNN developed by ourselves correctly predicted MCL relapse in 70% of the patients on baseline CT imaging. Once prospectively tested in clinical trials with a larger sample size, our proposed 3D deep learning model could facilitate clinical management by precision imaging in MCL.