Early Anomaly Detection in Shrimp Pond Water Quality Using Supervised and Unsupervised Machine Learning Models

Hamilton Villamar-Barros, Julián Coronel-Reyes, Alexander Haro-Sarango

Shrimp aquaculture increasingly depends on precise water quality management, yet most farms still rely on fragmented measurements and qualitative assessments. This study aimed to evaluate whether routine physicochemical data from commercial ponds can reliably discriminate between operational categories of acceptable and residual water and thus support early warning systems. We compiled water quality records from shrimp ponds in several coastal provinces, focusing on a reduced set of variables related to salinity, alkalinity, hardness and inorganic nitrogen. Supervised and unsupervised machine learning models were trained and compared using standard classification metrics. Tree-based ensembles and margin-based models achieved high accuracy and F1 scores when predicting water status from routine variables, while clustering methods only reproduced similar patterns after an ex post mapping of clusters to classes. These results indicate that latent nitrogen loads and subtle shifts in water chemistry are systematically captured by basic monitoring data and can be translated into operational signals of risk. The study demonstrates the feasibility of integrating data-driven classification into shrimp farm monitoring and outlines a pathway toward low-cost, scalable decision support tools for aquaculture 4.0 in data-limited settings.