Real-Time Detection, Evaluation, and Mapping of Crowd Panic Emergencies Based on Geo-Biometrical Data and Machine Learning

Ilias Lazarou, Anastasios L. Kesidis, Andreas Tsatsaris

Crowd panic emergencies can pose serious risks to public safety, and effective detection and mapping of such events are crucial for rapid response and mitigation. In this paper, we propose a real-time system for detecting and mapping crowd panic emergencies based on machine learning and georeferenced biometric data from wearable devices and smartphones. The system uses a Gaussian SVM machine learning classifier to predict whether a person is stressed or not and then performs real-time spatial analysis to monitor the movement of stressed individuals. To further enhance emergency detection and response, we introduce the concept of CLOT (Classifier Confidence Level Over Time) as a parameter that influences the system’s noise filtering and detection speed. Concurrently, we introduce a newly developed metric called DEI (Domino Effect Index). The DEI is designed to assess the severity of panic-induced crowd behavior by considering factors such as the rate of panic transmission, density of panicked people, and alignment with the road network. This metric offers immeasurable benefits by assessing the magnitude of the cascading impact, enabling emergency responders to quickly determine the severity of the event and take necessary actions to prevent its escalation. Based on individuals’ trajectories and adjacency, the system produces dynamic areas that represent the development of the phenomenon’s spatial extent in real time. The results show that the proposed system is effective in detecting and mapping crowd panic emergencies in real time. The system generates three types of dynamic areas: a dynamic Crowd Panic Area based on the initial stressed locations of the persons, a dynamic Crowd Panic Area based on the current stressed locations of the persons, and the dynamic geometric difference between these two. These areas provide emergency responders with a real-time understanding of the extent and development of the crowd panic emergency, allowing for a more targeted and effective response. By incorporating the CLOT and the DEI, emergency responders can better understand crowd behavior and develop more effective response strategies to mitigate the risks associated with panic-induced crowd movements. In conclusion, our proposed system, enhanced by the incorporation of these two new metrics, proves to be a dependable and efficient tool for detecting, mapping, and assessing the severity of crowd panic emergencies, leading to a more efficient response and ultimately safeguarding public safety.