Determination of Energy Savings via Fuel Consumption Estimation with Machine Learning Methods and Rule-Based Control Methods Developed for Experimental Data of Hybrid Electric Vehicles

Yılmaz Seryar Arıkuşu, Nevra Bayhan, Hasan Tiryaki

In this study, a parallel hybrid electric vehicle produced within the scope of our project titled “Development of Fuel Efficiency Enhancing and Innovative Technologies for Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles” has been modeled. Firstly, a new rule-based control method is proposed to minimize fuel consumption and carbon emission values in driving cycles in the experimental model of the parallel hybrid electric vehicle produced within the scope of this project. The proposed control method ensures that the internal combustion engine (ICE) operates at the optimum point. In addition, the electric motor (EM) is activated more frequently at low speeds, and the electric motor can also work as a generator. Then, a new dataset was also created on a traffic-free racetrack with the proposed control method for fuel consumption estimation of a parallel hybrid electric vehicle using ECE-15 (Urban Driving Cycle), EUDC (Extra Urban Driving Cycle), and NEDC (New European Driving Cycle) driving cycles. The data set is dependent on 11 different input variables, which complicates the system. Afterward, the fuel estimation process is made with seven different machine learning methods (ML), and these methods are compared using the obtained data set. To avoid overfitting machine learning, two different test data sets were created. The Random Forest algorithm is the most suitable technique in terms of training and testing the fuel consumption model using correlation coefficient (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) simulation appropriateness for both test datasets. Moreover, the random forest algorithm achieved an impressive accuracy of 97% and 90% for both test datasets, outperforming the other algorithms. Furthermore, the proposed method consumes 4.72 L of fuel per 100 km, while the gasoline-powered vehicle consumes 7 L of fuel per 100 km. The results show that the proposed method emits 4.69 kg less CO2 emissions. The effectiveness of the Random Forest Algorithm has been verified by both simulation results and real-world data.