Daily Snow-Water-Equivalent Trends over the Great Lakes Basin: A Computer Vision and Deep Learning-Based Approach

Karim Malik, Isteyak Isteyak, Kristen Kys, Yusriyah Rahman, Hala Al Daker, Karanveer Sidhu

Snow water equivalent (SWE), the amount of water that will be liberated when a given snowpack melts, is considered an essential climate variable. Snowmelt drives annual run-off in snow-dominant basins. However, detecting daily SWE changes in lake-effect snowfall regions such as the Great Lakes Basin (GLB) is challenging with classical methods. We developed a Siamese U-Net (Si-UNet) model to detect and characterize daily changes and trends in SWE. Our Si-UNet detected daily changes in SWE over the GLB with an F1-score of 98.73%. To characterize the basin-wide extent of anomalies in SWE distribution, we compared SWE trends to a 35-year median (35YB) baseline and identified decadal trends in SWE. We found that the period from 1989 to 2008 was the temporal window with minimal anomalies, compared to the 35YB of ~0.5108. Positive deviations from the 35YB were prevalent over these 20 years, indicating less significant daily changes. A significant shift to daily SWE similarity below the 35YB occurred after 2009, especially in January and February. Daily changes in SWE were high in April, beginning in the second week. The strongest positive trend, likely associated with lake-effect snowfall, was observed in April 2000 (R2 = 0.47).