Wildfire Probability Mapping in Southeastern Europe Using Deep Learning and Machine Learning Models Based on Open Satellite Data

Uroš Durlević, Velibor Ilić, Bojana Aleksova

Wildfires, which encompass all fires that occur outside urban areas, represent one of the most frequent forms of natural disaster worldwide. This study presents the wildfire occurrence across the territory of Southeastern Europe, covering an area of 800,000 km2 (Greece, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, and Moldova). The research applies geospatial artificial intelligence techniques, based on the integration of machine learning (Random Forest (RF), XGBoost), deep learning (Deep Neural Network (DNN), Kolmogorov–Arnold Networks (KAN)), remote sensing (Sentinel-2, VIIRS), and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). From the geospatial database, 11 natural and anthropogenic criteria were analyzed, along with a wildfire inventory comprising 28,952 historical fire events. The results revealed that areas of very high susceptibility were most prevalent in Greece (10.5%), while the smallest susceptibility percentage was recorded in Slovenia (0.2%). Among the applied models, RF demonstrated the highest predictive performance (AUC = 90.7%), whereas XGBoost, DNN, and KAN achieved AUC values ranging from 86.7% to 90.5%. Through a SHAP analysis, it was determined that the most influential factors were global horizontal irradiation, elevation, and distance from settlements. The obtained results hold international significance for the implementation of preventive wildfire protection measures.