A Novel Multi-Objective Hybrid Evolutionary-Based Approach for Tuning Machine Learning Models in Short-Term Power Consumption Forecasting

Aleksei Vakhnin, Ivan Ryzhikov, Harri Niska, Mikko Kolehmainen

Accurately forecasting power consumption is crucial important for efficient energy management. Machine learning (ML) models are often employed for this purpose. However, tuning their hyperparameters is a complex and time-consuming task. The article presents a novel multi-objective (MO) hybrid evolutionary-based approach, GA-SHADE-MO, for tuning ML models aimed at solving the complex problem of forecasting power consumption. The proposed algorithm simultaneously optimizes both hyperparameters and feature sets across six different ML models, ensuring enhanced accuracy and efficiency. The study focuses on predicting household power consumption at hourly and daily levels. The hybrid MO evolutionary algorithm integrates elements of genetic algorithms and self-adapted differential evolution. By incorporating MO optimization, GA-SHADE-MO balances the trade-offs between model complexity (the number of used features) and prediction accuracy, ensuring robust performance across various forecasting scenarios. Experimental numerical results show the superiority of the proposed method compared to traditional tuning techniques, and random search, showcasing significant improvements in predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. The findings suggest that the proposed GA-SHADE-MO approach offers a powerful tool for optimizing ML models in the context of energy consumption forecasting, with potential applications in other domains requiring precise predictive modeling. The study contributes to the advancement of ML optimization techniques, providing a framework that can be adapted and extended for various predictive analytics tasks.