Geospatial Robust Wheat Yield Prediction Using Machine Learning and Integrated Crop Growth Model and Time-Series Satellite Data

Rana Ahmad Faraz Ishaq, Guanhua Zhou, Guifei Jing, Syed Roshaan Ali Shah, Aamir Ali, Muhammad Imran, Hongzhi Jiang, Obaid-ur-Rehman

Accurate crop yield modeling (CYM) is inherently challenging due to the complex, nonlinear, and temporally dynamic interactions of biotic and abiotic factors. Crop traits, which historically capture the cumulative effect of these factors, exhibit functional relationships critical for optimizing productivity. This underscores the necessity of multi-trait-based CYM approaches. Crop growth models enable trait dynamics with reflectance data and spectral indices as proxies for crop health and traits, respectively, to have real-time, spatially explicit monitoring. The Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator was calibrated to simulate multiple traits across the growth season based on geo-tagged wheat field ground information. Reflectance and spectral indices were processed for the geo-tagged fields across temporal observations to enable real-time, spatially explicit monitoring. Based on these parameters, this study addresses a critical gap in existing CYM frameworks by proposing a machine learning-based model that synergized multiple crop traits with reflectance and spectral indices to generate site-specific yield estimates. The performance evaluation revealed that the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model achieved superior accuracy for the integrated parameters (RMSE = 250.68 kg/ha, MAE = 193.76 kg/ha, and R2 = 0.84), followed by traits alone. The Random Forest model followed the LSTM model, with an RMSE = 293.56 kg/ha, MAE = 230.68 kg/ha, and R2 = 0.78 for integrated parameters, and an RMSE = 291.73 kg/ha, MAE = 223.17 kg/ha, and R2 = 0.78 for crop traits. The superior prediction demonstrated the dominant role of multiple crop traits with satellite-derived reflectance metrics to develop robust CYM frameworks capable of capturing intra- and inter-field yield variability.