CORTEXA
← Browse
arxiveess.SYmath.PRq-bio.PE2026-07-31

Fleming-Viot Selection of the Yaglom Limit for Age-Structured Bellman-Harris Processes, with Application to Livestock Epidemic Surveillance

Ouerdia Arezki, Paul-Marie Grollemund, Ali Zemouche

In this paper, we construct a Fleming-Viot particle system for a class of subcritical Bellman-Harris processes. We prove that it selects the Yaglom limit at a polynomial rate in the number of particles. Since lifetimes are non-exponential, the population size is not Markov, and the analysis must therefore be carried out on the space of age configurations. In this setting, the Lyapunov functions used for Galton-Watson processes are no longer norm-like. Nevertheless, we establish a Yaglom theorem that strengthens the classical result: the conditional laws converge in total variation at an exponential rate, with decay rate given by the Malthusian parameter. We also prove that the drift condition, which links the hazard rate to the offspring law, is necessary within a natural class of Lyapunov functions, showing that it is a feature of the measure-valued lift rather than a defect of the estimates. Finally, we illustrate the estimator through an application to livestock epidemic surveillance, where the Yaglom limit is the null distribution of a change-detection test.

View free PDFSource page

Related papers

arxivmath.OCeess.SYmath.DSq-bio.PE2026-07-12

On the Existence of Almost Periodic Solutions with Applications to Global Entrainment

Iasson Karafyllis, Miroslav Krstic

This paper provides two results that are useful in the study of the existence and the stability properties of almost periodic solutions for a given dynamical system. The obtained results are generalizations of recent results for periodic systems and are applied to the global entr…

View free PDFSource page
arxiveess.SYmath.OC2026-07-07

VIBES -- A Two-Stage Scalable Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification Framework: Application to a Biomass Valorization Process

Poulomi Das, Angan Mukherjee, Debangsu Bhattacharyya

This paper proposes Variational Inference-based Bayesian Estimation with Sobol screening (VIBES), a two-stage scalable framework for Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ). The proposed approach combines Sobol global sensitivity analysis (GSA) for screening and dimensionality r…

View free PDFSource page
arxivcs.LGeess.SY2026-07-18

Bridging battery design and health assessment through virtual sensing and physics-informed learning

Wendi Guo, Søren Byg Vilsen, Daniel Ioan Stroe, Yaqi Li, Yicun Huang, Ashima Verma, et al.

Supercharging of lithium-ion batteries (LiBs) requires robust health monitoring to ensure durability, safety, and user confidence, particularly for emerging vehicle-to-grid applications with bidirectional energy flows. Yet battery management remains largely disconnected from the…

View free PDFSource page
arxiveess.SY2026-07-21

From P&ID Drawings to Process Graphs: A Multimodal Language Model Approach

Baikai Zhu, Samuel Duong, Javal Vyas, Mehmet Mercangöz

Piping and instrumentation diagrams (P&IDs) encode the functional structure of process plants and are a critical yet underutilised source of engineering knowledge for digital twins and intelli-gent decision support. However, digitising legacy P&IDs remains challenging due to hete…

View free PDFSource page