Explainable AI-Driven Machine Learning for Forecasting Marine Fisheries Production Using Environmental Predictors

Paul Bokingkito, Krisanadej Jaroensutasinee, Mullica Jaroensutasinee

The marine capture fisheries sector of the Philippines employs approximately 2.3 million Filipinos, yet recent declines (including a 15.3% drop in Q1 2026 production relative to Q1 2025) underscore the need for forecasting systems resolved at the regional and sectoral level. Existing Philippine approaches rely on univariate classical time-series methods and seldom integrate multivariate oceanographic predictors. This study addresses three questions: (RQ1) How do nine candidate machine learning algorithms compare in forecasting regional fish production from environmental predictors? (RQ2) Which environmental predictors most strongly drive model output, as quantified by explainable AI (XAI) SHAP-based feature attribution? (RQ3) To what extent do model performance and predictor importance vary across regions? Across 32 region–sector panels spanning 2002–2025, kernel and neural network models were selected as the best-performing architecture in 26 of 32 panels (81.3%), achieving a mean composite score 12.7% higher than tree-based ensembles, a gap attributable to extrapolation along trending physical predictors. Feature attribution identified the partial pressure of CO2 as the leading driver in both sectors, exceeding the second-ranked variable by factors of 2.5 (commercial) and 3.4 (marine municipal). Regional heterogeneity in retained predictors, winning algorithms, and SHAP attribution rankings supports region-specific forecasting as a necessary design choice. Mean absolute percentage error of 22–25% and directional accuracy of 0.62–0.66 indicate operational utility for early-warning applications, establishing a basis for evidence-driven priority-setting in Philippine fisheries governance.