arxivcs.AIcs.LG2026-06-28
SCARCE: Scalable Cascade Analysis for Rare-event Characterisation via Embeddings
Yingjie Wang, Yi Dong, Edmund Lau, Jie Meng, Taylor T Johnson, Xiaowei Huang
Rare events govern the safety profile of modern AI systems, yet their probabilities are extremely difficult to estimate: direct Monte Carlo requires prohibitive sample budgets. Subset Simulation (SS) addresses this by decomposing a rare-event probability into moderate conditional…