arxivcs.AI2026-07-03
Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents
Yishu Wang, Yuxuan Wang, Jiaqi Deng, Hanyang Tang
Forecasting future events has attracted growing attention as a testbed for general-purpose AI. A natural way to ground this evaluation is let the models trade in the prediction markets. Trading, however, requires more than forecasting. Moreover, recent benchmarks report a substan…