Forecasting future events has attracted growing attention as a testbed for general-purpose AI. A natural way to ground this evaluation is let the models trade in the prediction markets. Trading, however, requires more than forecasting. Moreover, recent benchmarks report a substantial gap between calibrated probability scores and the trading results. We propose Raven-Agent, to the best of our knowledge, the first autonomous trading agent for prediction markets. On a controlled replay over an archived decision set, our architecture achieves the only positive return and the only positive risk-adjusted return among all tested policies. We have released our code in https://github.com/Alchemist-X/predict-raven .
MEMEs are widely used on the internet and often carry strong elements of sarcasm or irony. Understanding their hidden meanings typically requires a joint interpretation of text and vision. Existing methods focus on the dual-stream vision-language model to extract the visual and t…
Geometry Foundation Models (GFMs) have substantially advanced monocular 3D reconstruction, yet extending this capability to 4D dynamic understanding remains a fundamental challenge. Most existing motion perception methods (e.g., sparse tracking, dense point-wise flow) treat motio…
To effectively integrate AI into high-stakes, critical environments such as healthcare, autonomous driving, and aviation--and to advance toward higher levels of automation and seamless human-AI collaboration--building trust in AI-driven solutions is essential. Trust, in turn, is…
Multimodal chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning integrates visual and textual cues through step-by-step inference. In small models with limited token budgets, modality-interaction fusion often suppresses tiny cross-modal differences. In particular, multimodal CoT often struggles when…
We show how large-deviation statistics allows one to obtain reliable estimates of the multiplicity of stable fixed-points in a model of neural ordinary differential equations previously employed in computational tasks. The result is obtained by developing a suitable perturbative…
Adding procedural skills to an LLM agent is typically evaluated by average improvement in task success. However, this metric hides an important cost: skills can also make agents worse. We measure both sides by comparing agents with and without skills across nearly 6,000 runs span…