In many decision-making settings, new interventions are acceptable only if they do not reduce outcomes below some established threshold. For example, in clinical medicine, new treatments are often acceptable only if they do not worsen outcomes relative to an established standard of care. Safe Bayesian optimization maximizes an objective subject to safety constraints. In the setting that we consider here, safety is defined relative to a known baseline policy whose outcomes are counterfactual and therefore unobserved. Thus, the counterfactual outcomes of the baseline policy must be estimated and those (uncertain) estimates must be used to safely optimize the objective. We address this estimation problem by using conformal prediction to construct valid uncertainty intervals for counterfactual baseline outcomes, and we show how these intervals can be integrated into safe Bayesian optimization to ensure that constraint violations occur at or below a user-specified rate. We also show how to adapt these conformal estimates to different kinds of covariate shift. We provide a safety proof, experimental evidence, and a sensitivity analysis.
Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) has shown strong effectiveness in reinforcement learning from verifiable feedback, where sampled rollouts can be compared within a group using task-provided correctness signals. However, extending group-relative optimization beyond verifi…
Recent breakthroughs of Reinforcement Learning (RL) have highlighted its potential for complex agentic Large Language Model (LLM) tasks. However, existing efforts largely focus on single-task settings, whereas real-world deployment necessitates a generalist agent capable of solvi…
Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a dominant paradigm for enhancing LLMs' reasoning capabilities. However, RL algorithms with PPO-Clip are inherently limited by exploration collapse. Subsequent works remain primarily heuristic and fail to identify the essential cause of PPO-…
Training multi-turn evidence-reading agents with outcome-only reinforcement learning is unstable because intermediate turns receive little direct credit. In HotpotQA experiments with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct, GRPO initially improves (standard F1 0.430) but subsequently collapses to 10…
Reinforcement Learning (RL) has substantially improved the reasoning ability of large language models (LLMs), but sparse outcome rewards still make token-level credit assignment difficult. Existing scalable RL methods typically assign trajectory-level rewards uniformly across tok…
This study presents a multi-fidelity framework for the systematic optimization of genetic algorithm (GA) hyperparameters. The framework integrates three fidelity levels: high-fidelity Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) homogenization for validation, a medium-fidelity 3D convolutional n…