Emanuela Dreassi, Fabrizio Leisen, Luca Pratelli, Pietro Rigo
Two misunderstandings, frequently arising in Bayesian predictive inference, are discussed. The first deals with the data generating mechanism, while the second consists in overestimating the role played by asymptotic exchangeability. Some consequences of such misunderstandings are highlighted through examples.
Neyman--Pearson classification prioritizes one class by constraining its accuracy above a prespecified level, and then takes the accuracy of the other class as the utility objective. This paradigm is well suited for disease screening and diagnosis, among other applications. Stati…
Causal subgroup analyses often report a small number of groups summarizing treatment effect heterogeneity, as if that number were a well-defined estimand. Outside genuinely latent class populations, however, a ``true'' subgroup count is model dependent rather than a population fu…
We propose one-step and two-step methods for policy learning with retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). We formulate RAG-based action selection under the potential outcome framework. In the two-step method, vector search retrieves action-specific neighboring evidence in an embedd…
Language models produce probabilities over words, but professional decisions require uncertainty over meaningful states such as diagnoses, hypotheses or operational conditions. A model's printed numerical confidence does not establish reliability. We introduce a semantic map: a p…
For training-data-based model risk prediction, $K$-fold cross-validation~(CV) is widely used to mitigate the well-known over-optimism of the empirical risk and is often regarded as reliable. However, for binary classification via empirical risk minimization, our numerical studies…
Asger Waagepetersen, Asbjørn Risom, Niels Richard Hansen, Anton Rask Lundborg
Parameters of interest in causal inference, such as treatment or policy effects, can often be expressed as linear functionals of an outcome regression function. Automatic debiased machine learning (AutoDML) is a unified framework for obtaining asymptotically normal estimators of…