Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Remote Sensing and Machine Learning to Predict Productive and Physiological Traits of Forage Cactus in Semi-Arid Forage Systems

Ricardo Macedo da Silva, Mario Adriano Ávila Queiroz, Thieres George Freire da Silva, Juliana Caroline Santos Santana, Stela Antas Urbano, Juliana Cantalino dos Santos, Wagner Martins dos Santos, Antonio Leandro Chaves Gurgel, Felipe Pontes Teixeira das Chagas, Fábio dos Anjos Rezende, João Virgínio Emerenciano Neto

The use of nondestructive technologies combined with machine learning has emerged as a promising approach for estimating structural and productive traits in agricultural systems. This study evaluated the potential of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) imagery integrated with the Random Forest algorithm to predict structural, physiological and productive variables of forage cactus cultivated under semi-arid conditions. The experiment was conducted over two years using four varieties: Orelha de Elefante Mexicana (OEM), Miúda, IPA Sertânia and IPA 20. RGB and red–green–near-infrared (RGNir) orthomosaics, along with a digital elevation model, were used to derive spectral and structural variables, which were related to field measurements. Model performance was assessed using the coefficient of determination (R2). The models showed high predictive performance for dry mass production, particularly for OEM, IPA Sertânia and IPA 20 (R2 = 0.85, 0.85 and 0.83). Physiological variables, such as chlorophyll A and B, also showed consistent fits (R2 = 0.70 and 0.83), while structural variables, including height and volume, exhibited lower stability. Differences among varieties affected model accuracy, especially for Miúda, due to its architectural characteristics. The integration of UAV imagery and machine learning provides a reliable approach for monitoring forage cactus, although model performance depends on plant structure.