Pretrained models are typically ranked on multi-task leaderboards to assess their effectiveness across diverse tasks. Rank confidence intervals were recently introduced as a method to quantify the uncertainty in these rankings by aggregating pairwise hypothesis tests. In this work, we analyze the sources of uncertainty in the knowledge evaluation benchmark MMLU and show how hypothesis tests can be modified to account for their effects. We demonstrate that ranking variability across MMLU subjects is substantial and should be considered when comparing LLMs or identifying the top-performing models.
Building AI Scientist agents with Large Language Models (LLMs) has recently attracted growing attention. Since scientific discovery fundamentally relies on uncovering causal relationships from observations, the capability of causal thinking, i.e., distinguishing causation from co…
Systematic comparisons between current situations and structurally similar past events in the historical, i.e., historical analogies, is among the most powerful tools for foresight analysis. In this work, we present a new task called Analogical Deep Research (ADR) to Large Langua…
What does a discrete diffusion model learn: a denoiser, a score ratio, or a bridge plug-in predictor? At the level of jump rates, these are one object in different coordinates, and reading a neural network in the wrong coordinate changes the process being trained and sampled. Sta…
We study on-policy distillation (OPD) for agentic tasks, where an LLM agent interacts with an environment over multiple turns and a student imitates a teacher over these multi-turn interaction histories. Fully online OPD is costly because each update requires fresh student rollou…
Within-class variance in language-model representations is commonly read as incomplete neural collapse. We argue it is allocated information storage, and that the allocation obeys a law. A one-line centering identity voids a family of simplex equiangular-tight-frame claims, inclu…
Distinguishing Large Language Model (LLM) generated text from human writing is a critical and difficult challenge. While LLMs are trained to write like humans, we hypothesize that this training leaves an indelible mark. LLMs develop a particularly strong aversion to token repetit…