Engineering-Oriented Explainable Machine Learning and Digital Twin Framework for Sustainable Dairy Production and Environmental Impact Optimisation

Ruiming Xing, Baihua Li, Shirin Dora, Michael Whittaker, Janette Mathie

Enhancing productivity while reducing environmental impact presents a major engineering challenge in sustainable dairy farming. This study proposes an engineering-oriented explainable machine learning and digital twin framework for multi-objective optimisation of milk yield and nitrogen-related emissions. Using the CowNflow dataset, which integrates individual-level nitrogen balance, feeding, and production data collected under controlled experimental conditions, the framework combines data analytics, feature selection, predictive modelling, and SHAP-based explainability to support decision-making in dairy production. The stacking ensemble model achieved the best predictive performance (R2 = 0.85 for milk yield and R2 = 0.794 for milk urea), providing reliable surrogates for downstream optimisation. Predicted milk urea values were further transformed using empirical equations to estimate urinary urea nitrogen (UUN) and ammonia (NH3) emissions, offering an indirect yet practical approach to assess environmental sustainability. Furthermore, the predictive models are integrated into a digital twin platform that provides a dynamic, real-time simulation environment for scenario testing, continuous optimisation, and data-driven decision support, effectively bridging data analytics with sustainable dairy system management. This research demonstrates how explainable AI, machine learning, and digital twin engineering can jointly drive sustainable dairy production, offering actionable insights for improving productivity while minimising environmental impact.